Cycles of war = cycles of weather?

Afton T. -- A new study shows correlation between years with an el Nino weather pattern and years with political stress and upheaval. The interesting part is that only countries affected by the el Nino experience this correlation. Other studies have related changes in weather patterns with civil unrest, but since most of the studies were case by case, most people were skeptical, even if completely at random, some cases would coincide with weather patterns. Solomon Hsiang, the leader of the study, classified countries by whether or not they were affected by el Nino, and then researched those that do feel the effects to find the dates of all their civil unrest. They then compared the number of periods of civil unrest during el Nino to the number during normal weather patterns. They found that twice as many conflicts started in countries under el Nino’s influence during the warmer weather patterns. they also found that at least 21 percent of the worlds conflicts can be related to el Nino. There are many reasons that el Nino could affect our society so much. One, people become more aggressive in warmer weather; two, difficulty in fonding a job causes working in the militia to look more exciting; and three, a lack of food causes people to be dissatisfied with their life and more likely to rebel. The interesting point of this article is the way it connects historical conflict to today’s world. It points out the fact that, with all the changes in the weather patterns around the world caused by global warming, the amounts of conflicts worldwide may go up.

This article stood out to me because of the way it linked historical events to topics that are relevant now, such as global warming. I found the fact that people are more aggressive when it is warmer to be interesting, and I have to agree with it: I know that I at least am easier to anger when it is hot outside, and I think that most people are. The article also poses some interesting questions: Do the number of revolutions going on in the Middle East have anything to do with climate change? It also makes me wonder how this will affect us, the next generation. Will we live in a time full of war and strife? I also liked the fact that such a tiny change could affect the world on such a massive scale. A change of .05 degrees Celsius doesn’t seem that big of a deal to us, yet it has such a large and widespread effect. Going back to my original topic, if such a small change affects the world so greatly, then how much of a change will we see as global warming gets greater? All in all, I thoroughly enjoyed this article, and the way it made me think.

Link: Cycles of war = cycles of weather?